James V. Stone.
Bayes' Rule: a tutorial introduction to Bayesian analysis.
Sebtel Press. 2013
Discovered by an 18th century mathematician and preacher,
Bayes’ rule is a cornerstone of modern probability theory.
In this richly illustrated book, a range of accessible examples
is used to show how Bayes’ rule is actually a natural
consequence of commonsense reasoning. Bayes’ rule is then derived using
intuitive graphical representations of probability, and Bayesian analysis is applied
to parameter estimation using the MatLab programs provided. The tutorial style
of writing, combined with a comprehensive glossary, makes this an ideal primer
for novices who wish to become familiar with the basic principles of Bayesian analysis.