Robert Matthews.
Chancing It: the laws of chance and how they can work for yu.
Profile Books. 2017
Everyone who’s had to get to grips with chance knows
how tricky even its simplest manifestations can be.
Its workings are a constant challenge to common sense:
a run of luck goes bad just when you trust it; expert
predictions of everything from the weather to elections
prove hopelessly unreliable; proven health advice turns
out to be anything but.
Award-winning scientist and writer Robert Matthews shows us how we can cut through the conundrums of chance. He gives us access to some of the most potent intellectual tools ever developed, and explains how we can use them to guide our judgements. By the end of this book you’ll know:
• The secret to predicting coincidences
• The golden rule of professional gamblers
• How to tell when insurance is a waste of money
• When to believe health warnings - and when to ignore them