Books & Chapters

Brennen Fagan, Ian Horwood, Niall MacKay, Chris Price and Jamie Wood, Quantifying Counterfactual Military History, in the American Statistical Association-CRC Press series on Statistical Reasoning in Science and Society, Taylor and Francis, September 2023.

Niall MacKay, When Lanchester met Richardson: the interaction of warfare with psychology, in N. P. Gleditsch ed., Lewis Fry Richardson: his intellectual legacy and influence in the social sciences, Springer Pioneers series, vol. 27, 2020.

Ian Horwood, The fourth dimension of warfare: Early techno-thriller fiction and the manned bomber vs. missile controversy of the early 1960s, in D. Faria et al. eds., L'aviation et son impact sur le temps et espace, Paris: Le Manuscrit Savoirs: Exotopies, 2019.

Christopher Price, Britain, America and Rearmament in the 1930s: The Cost of Failure, New York: Palgrave, 2001

Ian Horwood, Inter-Service Rivalry and Airpower in the Vietnam War, Fort Leavenworth, Kansas: CSI Press, 2006


Ian Horwood and Christopher Price, 'A fundamental weapon': the transatlantic air power controversy of the early 1920s and the US Navy as a learning organisation, Journal of Transatlantic Studies 19 no.1 (2021) 4-26

Michael P. Atkinson, Moshe Kress and Niall J. MacKay, Targeting, deployment and loss-tolerance in Lanchester models, Operations Research 69 no.1 (2021) 71-81

Brennen T. Fagan, Marina I. Knight, Niall J. MacKay and A. Jamie Wood, Changepoint Analysis of Historical Battle Deaths, arXiv:1909.02626 [stat.AP], Journal of the Royal Statistical Society A 183 no.3 (2020) 909-933.
U of York press release.

Brennen Fagan, Ian Horwood, Niall MacKay, Christopher Price, Ed Richards and A. Jamie Wood, Bootstrapping the Battle of Britain, Journal of Military History 84 no.1 (2020) 151-186
U of York press release.

Moshe Kress, Kyle Lin and Niall MacKay, The Attrition Dynamics of Multilateral War, Operations Research 66 no.4 (2018) 950-956
INFORMS press release

Niall MacKay, Chris Price and A. Jamie Wood, Dogger Bank: Weighing the Fog of War, Significance 14 no.3 (June 2017) 14-19, an invited article based on our Historical Methods paper below.

Niall MacKay, Christopher Price and A. Jamie Wood, Weight of Shell Must Tell: A Lanchestrian reappraisal of the Battle of Jutland, History 101 (2016) 536-563, and featured in The Conversation

Niall MacKay, Christopher Price and A. Jamie Wood, Weighing the Fog of War: Illustrating the power of Bayesian methods for historical analysis through the Battle of the Dogger Bank, Historical Methods 49 (2016) 80-91

N. J. MacKay, When Lanchester met Richardson, the outcome was stalemate: a parable for mathematical models of insurgency, Journal of the Operational Research Society 66 (2015) 191-201. Also reprinted as Ch.6 of Operational Research, Defence and Security (a volume of the OR Essentials series, Palgrave Macmillan in association with the Operational Research Society).

Dominic D. P. Johnson and Niall J. MacKay, Fight the Power: Lanchester's laws of combat in human evolution, Evolution and Human Behavior 36 (2015) 152-163

Ian Horwood, Niall MacKay and Christopher Price, Concentration and Asymmetry in Air Combat: Lessons for the defensive employment of air power, Air Power Review 17 no.2 (2014) 68-91

Kyle Lin and Niall J. MacKay, The optimal policy for the one-against-many heterogeneous Lanchester model, Operations Research Letters 42 (2014) 473-477

Moshe Kress and Niall J. MacKay, Bits or Shots in Combat? The Generalized Deitchman Model of Guerrilla Warfare, Operations Research Letters 42 (2014) 102-108

Niall J. MacKay, Is air combat Lanchestrian?, Phalanx: the Bulletin of Military Operations Research 44 no. 4 (2011) 12-14

Niall MacKay and Christopher Price, Safety in Numbers: Ideas of concentration in Royal Air Force fighter defence from Lanchester to the Battle of Britain, History 96 (2011) 304-325

I. R. Johnson and N. J. MacKay, Lanchester models and the Battle of Britain, Naval Research Logistics 58 (2011) 210-222, in the memorial special volume for Richard E. Rosenthal.

N. J. MacKay, Lanchester models for mixed forces with semi-dynamical target allocation, Journal of the Operational Research Society 60 (2009) 1421-1427 and JORS Viewpoint 63 (2012) 1633

N. J. MacKay, Lanchester combat models, Mathematics Today: Bulletin of the Institute for Mathematics and its Applications 42 (2006) 170-173

C. Price, The Political Genesis of Air Raid Precautions and the York Raid of 1942, Northern History 36 (2000) 299-318

I. Horwood, Giulio Douhet: Prophet of Strategic Airpower, Strategy & Tactics 174 (1995).

By Coollew. Art by Bruce MacKay.